Taiwan economy on course to moderate recovery
Taiwan's sluggish economy is looking to a year-end recovery as the prosperity indicators picked up recently, but analysts say it still has a long way to go before back to the pre-crisis level.
The island's economic boom index bounced back to the green-light zone in November, after stagnation in 18 consecutive months, caused by the global economic downturn.
At the end of November, Taiwan's statistics authority raised its 2009 growth forecast to minus 2.53 percent, 1.5 percentage point higher than the estimate in August.
The authority predicted the island's economic growth rate to reach 4.39 percent next year.
Taiwan's statistics authority chief Shih Su-mei said, "Considering the export is rallying, Taiwan will have a moderate growth next year."
Analysts say Taiwan's export will continue to be boosted by demand from such emerging markets as the Chinese mainland during the fourth quarter of this year.
Hsu Sheng-hsiung, honorary director-general of the Taiwan Importers and Exporters Chamber of Commerce, said indicators showed Taiwan's economy was bottoming out and picking up as a whole.
However, analysts believe the recovery of this round lacked solid foundation because the employment and consumption indicators showed no signs of noticeable return.
Unemployment rate dropped in October only by a small margin to 5.96 percent, showing no clear evidence of employment recovery.
On Nov. 28, Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou called on people to "spend more to help the market recover", as worries remain of spreading A/H1N1 flu and the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot in August, which may affect consumer confidence.